"Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
That was Donald Trump's characteristic Sunday night declaration on Truth Social, breaking the news that the United States and Iran hit a preliminary agreement to end their brutal, months-long war. By Monday morning, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the breakthrough. A 14-point memorandum of understanding is heading for a formal signing in Switzerland this Friday, aiming to permanently stop military operations across all fronts—including Lebanon—lift the choking US naval blockade, and reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
On paper, it sounds like a historic victory. In the halls of Washington and Islamabad, it's being spun as a masterclass in high-stakes diplomacy. But if you talk to ordinary people on the streets of Tehran, Isfahan, or Tabriz, the mood isn't celebratory. It's exhausted, deeply cynical, and hyper-skeptical.
I've spent years tracking Iranian civil society, economic survival strategies, and state media narratives. The gap between what political leaders call a "diplomatic breakthrough" and what regular Iranians actually experience is vast. To understand why Iranians aren't popping champagne over this preliminary deal, you have to look past the political theater and see the harsh realities of life under the bombs and the sanctions.
The Crushing Cost of a Hundred-Day War
Don't mistake the lack of public euphoria for a lack of desire for peace. Iranians want this war over more than anyone. Since joint US and Israeli airstrikes hit Iran back in February 2026, everyday life has been a nightmare of hyperinflation, disrupted supply chains, and the terrifying hum of drones overhead.
The military conflict hammered an economy already structurally weak from years of secondary sanctions. When the US imposed a strict naval blockade on Iranian ports in mid-April, the local currency, the rial, took a nose dive. Basic goods became luxury items overnight.
Step inside a neighborhood grocery store in Tehran right now. You won't find people debating the finer points of international maritime law or the geopolitics of the Strait of Hormuz. They're looking at the price of milk, eggs, and medicine. The war didn't just target military infrastructure; it hollowed out the purchasing power of the middle and working classes.
So when state-run outlets like the Mehr news agency blast headlines about a 14-point peace plan, the immediate reaction from a regular citizen isn't "We won." It's "Can I afford meat next week?" People have heard big promises before. They're waiting to see if this paper agreement actually translates to a lower cost of living.
The Ghost of 2018 and the Trust Deficit
The biggest reason for the deep skepticism across Iran is simple history. Iranians have a long memory, and they've watched this movie before.
Back in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was signed. People actually flooded the streets of Tehran back then, dancing and waving flags, genuinely believing their isolation was over. Then came 2018. The first Trump administration unilaterally walked away from the deal, reimposing a "maximum pressure" campaign that shattered the Iranian private sector and broke the public's trust in international agreements.
Fast forward to today. The exact same US president who tore up the last agreement is the one signing this new memorandum of understanding. On top of that, Iran's leadership structure has shifted. With Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei now at the helm, the domestic political landscape is deeply consolidated and intensely wary of Western promises.
Regular Iranians know this. They understand that a preliminary framework negotiated through Pakistani mediators is incredibly fragile. They saw the ceasefire in April get violated repeatedly by both sides within days. Why would they risk emotional or financial optimism on a deal that could be canceled by a single social media post tomorrow morning?
What the Draft Deal Promises vs. Reality
Iranian state media has been leaking the alleged details of the 14-point memorandum. The wishlist looks incredibly generous to Tehran, which is exactly why savvy citizens are raising eyebrows.
The reported terms include:
- A permanent ceasefire on all fronts, including Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- The complete lifting of the US naval blockade within 30 days.
- An end to sanctions on Iranian oil and energy products.
- A massive $300 billion reconstruction plan funded by the US and its allies to rebuild Iran.
- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian management.
Let's look at this realistically. A $300 billion Western-funded reconstruction package for Iran is a political non-starter in Washington. Hardliners in the US Congress will never approve taxpayer money going to rebuild the Islamic Republic's infrastructure. Furthermore, Israel wasn't even a direct party to these US-Iran talks in Islamabad and Doha. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has consistently maintained that it isn't bound by Washington's timelines in Lebanon.
If Israel keeps striking targets in Beirut, or if hardline factions within Iran's security apparatus launch a retaliatory drone, the entire framework collapses. Iranians aren't fooled by the rosy picture painted by state broadcasters. They know a massive "delta" exists between these ambitious talking points and a functional, legally binding treaty.
The Nuclear Elephant in the Room
The most dangerous flaw in this preliminary deal is what it leaves out. The entire framework kicks the most contentious issue down the road: Iran's nuclear program.
According to Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, the current framework buys a 60-day ceasefire window. The plan is to use those two months to hammer out the messy details of long-term sanctions relief and nuclear verification. White House officials have already stated that their hard red line remains unchanged: Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, and its existing stockpiles must eventually be dismantled and removed.
This creates a high-stakes paradox. The Iranian leadership views its nuclear capabilities as its ultimate survival insurance policy—especially after a war that brought foreign strikes to their doorstep. They aren't going to dismantle their leverage upfront. Conversely, the US won't release the bulk of Iran's frozen foreign assets until that dismantling happens.
This gridlock directly impacts the Iranian public. True economic stability requires permanent sanctions relief, not temporary waivers that can be yanked away in 60 days. Businesses can't plan, investors won't enter the market, and the rial won't stabilize while the core nuclear dispute remains unresolved. Regular people know this temporary peace is essentially a pause button on a ticking time bomb.
How to Track Real Progress on the Ground
If you want to know if this peace deal is actually working, ignore the political speeches in Washington, Islamabad, and Geneva. Don't look at the official signing photos on Friday. Watch these three practical indicators instead:
First, look at the parallel market exchange rate of the Iranian Rial in Tehran's open markets. The open-market rate is the truest gauge of public and commercial confidence in Iran. If the rial rallies significantly and holds its ground over the next two weeks, it means local businesses are betting on real de-escalation. If it stays depressed, the market is signaling that the deal is empty talk.
Second, monitor the actual shipping data in the Strait of Hormuz. The deal mandates the reopening of the strait and the lifting of the US naval blockade within 30 days. Watch commercial maritime trackers. If major international oil tankers and cargo vessels start moving freely without hiked-up war insurance premiums or naval standoffs, the economic chokehold is genuinely easing.
Third, watch the rhetoric out of Israel and Lebanon. Because the regional theater is deeply interconnected, a failure to sustain the ceasefire on the line between Israel and Hezbollah will instantly bleed back into the US-Iran dynamic. If the fighting in Lebanon doesn't stop by Tuesday morning, this preliminary memorandum will be dead before the pens even hit the paper in Switzerland on Friday.
The coming days will reveal whether this framework is a genuine pivot toward regional stability or just a tactical breathing room for both governments. For the sake of the millions of ordinary Iranians caught in the crossfire, let's hope for the former—but don't blame them for preparing for the latter.
